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High interest savings

Retirement Calculators

After modeling potential results for retirement, I needed to sanity check. These first two either confirm that retirement is doable or just tell me what I want to hear.

Found by poking around:
Firecalc inputs spending, SSI, asset allocation, it projects based on history
FireSIM collects major inputs and outputs including SS income

Recommended at Can I Retire Yet? 3 Free or Best Calculators:
Vanguard Nest Egg Portfolio, Income, Years, Asset Allocation. No factoring of SS income. Does do Monte Carlo
Financial Mentor No monte carlo, produces a table of expected returns
Flexible Retirement Planner Java based tool with downloadable or web versions, can be run with multiple inputs

Well all of them tell me what I want to hear.

BogleHeads List of ...

Retirement Milestones

Milestone Events leading to retirement
Date Event Action or Result
2016-10-03 Colonoscopy If clear, proceed. If problem, reevaluate - clear.
2016-11-09 Election Review Clinton? We're OK, Trump? Determine plan that does not require SS income
2016-11-12 Spain Spending Review spending on Spain trip and input into budget projections
Semi-monthly Budget Review and refine proposed budget
2017-02-10 Bonus Round 1 Pay down mortgage? Pump ST savings?
2017-02-24 Bonus Round 2 Pay down mortgage? Pump ST savings?

Expense Estimators


Kaiser Foundation estimator

Income Tax

Check on income tax scenarios with these online tools.

Market Projections

From Investing Forum Post

You may want to see Vanguard's methodology and numbers from last year here. Some conditions are definitely different now than about a year ago, though. It has a range of estimates on stocks, bonds, inflation, etc.: Vangaurd 2015 Market Projections

AQR publishes some numbers and estimates stock returns based on averaging an earnings yield approach and dividend discount model approach, with the methodology explained a little more in the 1q14 publication. This also has some numbers for bonds: AQR

For reference, here is the main overview page for the Research Affiliates projections: [1]

BNY Mellon has their own 10-year capital market return assumptions for different asset classes: [2]

StarCapital has some handy per-country valuation information and stock market return expectations: [3]

For some theoretical frameworks and equity risk premium estimates (also some ways to adapt that to other countries, stock subclasses), check Aswath Damodaran's site here, especially the links at the bottom: [4]

William Bernstein has a simple methodology for both stocks and bonds that is more pessimistic than the above that you can see described in If You Can (from last year; it's easy to plug in today's numbers, though) in the "hurdle number two" section: [5]

Rick Ferri had a 30-year forecast he publishes every year. Now it seems PortfolioSolutions has taken it over. They still keep with the tradition of quoting what look to me like virtually impossible bond returns on average given starting yields. (now, it's very possible with the right sequence of yield curve changes, but on average you can't expect rates to spike up and then fall back down exactly) [6]

GMO has a 7-year forecast, which gets reported on by others. See here: [7]

Here is one John C. Bogle paper from 2015 on the subject, "Occam’s Razor Redux: Establishing Reasonable Expectations for Financial Market Returns": [8]

The wiki page here cites the Rick Ferri results as well as more numbers from Jack Bogle, Burton Malkiel, and Bill Bernstein: [9]


Dropbox of articles
Treasury Bond/TIPS rates

Investing Education

for want of a better term

150 Portfolios that are better than yours. From White Coat Investor.
Morningstar Classroom
Bogleheads Wiki
Spreadsheets for analysis and education from Bogleheads
21st Century Strategies book recommended by Boglehead reading list
Top 10 Investor Errors final article in the series with links to the previous nine
ETF Portfolio Modeling cute little tool from iShares
Myths about index investing Morningstar education
Taylor Larimore's Investment Gems Book list from a Bogelheads founder